Here's the Grantland link to Nate Silver's takeaways on the government shutdown.  If you want to dismiss Nate just because he started as a blogger, or worked for the New York Times, or will work for ESPN, but you do so at your peril.  Just remember that he was the only person who went 50 for 50 in picking states in the 2012 presidential race. 50 for 50.  Nate Silver is a witch.